Calendar impact labels are unreliable, treat them with suspicion

[Amanhasnoname]

Economic calendars colour events red, orange, or yellow, but the labels are generic. They reflect average historical impact, not what is likely today.

A usually minor release can become a big one when the market is focused on it. Inflation data matters little when a central bank is relaxed, and enormously when it is deciding on a rate move. Retail sales data barely registers in calm periods and shakes everything in uncertain ones.

The label also ignores the pair. A Japanese release rated low might still move USDJPY and cross pairs noticeably.

A better method is building a personal list based on past reactions. Reviewing the last six months of trades and noting which events produced slippage, wide spreads, or sudden moves gives a tailored guide.

Expectations matter too. A release close to the forecast produces little reaction, while a big miss makes a minor event important.

Is a personal event list maintained, or is the calendar's rating trusted as given?