The dollar smile intraday: useful frame or overthinking?

[FXS London Scalper]

The dollar smile is a nice macro picture: USD gains when the US economy is strong and also when everything is falling apart, and it weakens in the comfortable middle. Fine for weeks and months. The question I keep asking is whether it helps a scalper at all.

Where I think it helps a little:

• On risk-off mornings, when equities gap down and gold is bid, I'm much more careful with fading USD strength. The smile says that kind of bid can persist.
• After strong US data, the same logic says long-dollar moves can extend. I'm slower to short USDJPY into it.

Where it doesn't help:

• Entry timing. The smile says nothing about the next 15 minutes.
• Choosing between pairs. EURUSD and AUDUSD can react very differently to the same risk mood.
• Quiet days. Most days are nowhere on the smile, just noise.

So for me it's a background filter, maybe one line in the morning note. "Risk-off, don't fight USD bids." That's it. Spending more time on it is mostly a way to feel productive without trading better.

Does anyone actually trade intraday off macro frameworks like this, or do you also keep them in the background?