Trend days versus range days: spotting the difference early

[Shadow Trader]

Scalping strategies often work on one type of day and fail on the other. Recognising the day type within the first hours helps avoid fighting the market.

Trend days usually show a strong directional move out of the opening range, with shallow pullbacks and rising tick volume. Price tends to hold above or below the session's volume-weighted average and keeps making higher highs or lower lows.

Range days show repeated tests of the same highs and lows, with failed breakouts and shrinking volume. Price oscillates around the mean.

Indicators help but are not required. Simple observation of the first two hours after London opens gives clues. If the opening range broke and held for 30 minutes, odds favour a trend day. If it broke and snapped back, odds favour a range.

A mismatch between strategy and day type produces the worst losses. Mean-reversion scalps on a trend day get run over. Breakout scalps on a range day get chopped.

Does the plan here include a method to classify the day, and how accurate has it been?