first day of the month, trade it or skip it?

[Shadow Trader]

This one splits opinion down the middle.

One side says the first trading day brings fresh flows. New month, new fund allocations, new data like manufacturing surveys at 10:00 New York time and sometimes jobs numbers on the first Friday. The market has a reason to move, so be there.

The other side says it's messy. Month-end hedges unwind, positions get reset, and a direction from the first hours can reverse by the afternoon. Tight stops get chopped. Better to wait for day two when things settle.

Both sides have a point. Flows really do reshuffle around the turn of the month, and early-month data often lands on that first day. Yet "more movement" and "more reliable movement" aren't the same thing. A scalper who needs clean one to five minute moves may prefer predictable calm to bigger noise.

Neither camp has hard proof in a forum post. The only real answer sits in a log that compares first trading days with the rest.

Which camp are you in, and has your own log ever backed that choice up?