Comparing 5 pip and 8 pip targets on the same EURUSD entries

[FXS London Scalper]

A useful journal exercise: take the same set of EURUSD entries and score them with two fixed targets, say 5 and 8 pips, with the same 4 pip stop. You need the furthest point each trade reached before the stop, which most platforms let you reconstruct from M1 data.

How to read it, with a worked example and 0.7 pips of costs:

• 5 pip target: if 58% of trades win, expectancy is 0.58 × (5 − 0.7) − 0.42 × (4 + 0.7) = 2.49 − 1.97 = +0.52 pips, about +0.11R.
• 8 pip target: if 41% win, 0.41 × 7.3 − 0.59 × 4.7 = 2.99 − 2.77 = +0.22 pips, about +0.05R.

The key number is how many trades reach 5 but not 8 and then reverse fully to the stop. That group is the cost of the bigger target.

The answer depends on the type of entry. Pullbacks in an existing move tend to stall near the previous high, which favours the smaller target. Breakouts from a range may favour the bigger one.

A natural next test is a partial exit at 5 with the rest to 8. The result usually lands in between, with a smoother equity curve.

Has anyone done this kind of target comparison on their own trades? Did the smaller target win for you?