Why EURCHF still moves like it remembers 2015

[Fairman]

Why EURCHF still moves like it remembers 2015

EURCHF has a strange personality. For a long period, the Swiss National Bank held a floor under it. When the floor was removed in January 2015, the move was among the most violent in modern forex history. The pair never fully forgot.

Now it trades in a narrow, quiet way most days and then occasionally leaps. Liquidity is thinner than the major pairs, spreads are wider, and the rare news from Switzerland produces outsized moves compared with what the data seem to deserve.

A scalper looking at a one-minute chart sees low volatility and tight ranges and thinks this is perfect. The risk is that the stops, calibrated on the quiet, sit too close to the market for the spread behaviour and the occasional jump. A pair like this punishes tight stops through spread expansion more than through direction.

Dealing with it means accepting a wider stop, a smaller position, and a lot of patience. Or leaving it alone.

Does the quiet character of EURCHF make it a better scalping pair or just a deceptive one?