The second wave after the first headline
Some events produce two distinct moves. A central bank decision hits at 14:15, price spikes, and then the press conference begins 30 minutes later, producing a different move that sometimes reverses the first.
The same pattern appears with employment data. The headline number prints first, followed by revisions and sub-components that change the interpretation over the next few minutes. The first move is a reaction to a single figure, and the second is a reaction to the full picture.
For scalpers, the second wave is often more tradable than the first. Spreads are tighter, execution is cleaner, and the direction reflects deeper analysis. It is less dramatic, though, and requires waiting through a stretch of apparent inactivity.
Checking the calendar for events that have a second component is worth the five minutes. Central bank statements with press conferences, data releases with subcomponents, and meetings with minutes published later all qualify.
A habit of marking the follow-up time on the chart creates discipline. Entering in the first minute is a choice. Entering in the second wave is another.
Which type of event tends to produce the most reliable second wave on the pair being traded?
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The second wave after the first headline
The second wave after the first headline
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Re: The second wave after the first headline
A lot of trading talk treats the first second of a big release as the opportunity. The first second is also the least tradable.
Within the first second, quotes are often absent or wildly wide. Platforms show prices that can't be traded. Orders sent at that moment fill, if at all, at the worst available levels. The initial spike is frequently a headline algorithm reacting to the top-line number, and it can reverse as soon as other participants digest the details.
By second five, something different is going on. Spreads begin to narrow. Real liquidity appears. The direction is clearer, though a big chunk of the move may be done.
Between those two moments sits the gap that separates people who get filled from people who get slipped. It explains why so many news scalpers' demo results beat their live results: demo fills often assume prices that nobody could get.
Some people wait ten or fifteen seconds and trade the second wave, accepting a smaller move for a much cleaner fill. Others skip the event completely.
Fills also depend on order type in these seconds. Market orders sent at second one are most likely to be rejected or slipped. Limit orders placed a few pips away from the market may get a better fill when the price runs through them, though they carry the risk of being left behind.
An alternative approach for those who want to trade the release is to place no order during the event, and instead enter after the first retracement. The second move, which begins perhaps thirty to ninety seconds later, is slower and cleaner. It's also smaller, but the cost is lower, and the order flow is more orderly.
To see how big the difference is, a good exercise is plotting average spread and average slippage by second, from second zero to second sixty, over a dozen releases. The curve falls steeply in the first ten seconds, then flattens.
How many seconds after a major release is the earliest point where fills start to look decent?
Within the first second, quotes are often absent or wildly wide. Platforms show prices that can't be traded. Orders sent at that moment fill, if at all, at the worst available levels. The initial spike is frequently a headline algorithm reacting to the top-line number, and it can reverse as soon as other participants digest the details.
By second five, something different is going on. Spreads begin to narrow. Real liquidity appears. The direction is clearer, though a big chunk of the move may be done.
Between those two moments sits the gap that separates people who get filled from people who get slipped. It explains why so many news scalpers' demo results beat their live results: demo fills often assume prices that nobody could get.
Some people wait ten or fifteen seconds and trade the second wave, accepting a smaller move for a much cleaner fill. Others skip the event completely.
Fills also depend on order type in these seconds. Market orders sent at second one are most likely to be rejected or slipped. Limit orders placed a few pips away from the market may get a better fill when the price runs through them, though they carry the risk of being left behind.
An alternative approach for those who want to trade the release is to place no order during the event, and instead enter after the first retracement. The second move, which begins perhaps thirty to ninety seconds later, is slower and cleaner. It's also smaller, but the cost is lower, and the order flow is more orderly.
To see how big the difference is, a good exercise is plotting average spread and average slippage by second, from second zero to second sixty, over a dozen releases. The curve falls steeply in the first ten seconds, then flattens.
How many seconds after a major release is the earliest point where fills start to look decent?