"oil up means CAD up" is shakier than it sounds

[Shadow Trader]

The textbook line says USDCAD falls whenever crude rallies, because Canada sells oil.

The link is real, but it drifts. Some weeks the correlation is clearly negative. Other weeks USDCAD ignores oil and trades off American data, rate expectations or plain dollar flow. Canada exports plenty besides crude, and the Bank of Canada's rate path often matters more than a barrel price.

Myth: you can scalp the pair straight off the oil chart. Reality: the two feeds don't tick in sync, and by the time a spike shows on the oil screen the 1-minute USDCAD candle may be half done. Inventory data can move both, or only one, or neither.

Myth: stronger oil always means a stronger loonie. Reality: if oil rises on a global risk-on mood, other forces are in play too and the dollar side can dominate.

A quick way to see the drift is to plot a rolling correlation of the two over a few different windows. It's rarely a straight line, and it flips sign more often than people expect.

Does USDCAD still follow oil for you on the 5-minute chart, or have you stopped treating it as a driver?