Unscheduled speakers are the real hazard

[Fairman]

Unscheduled speakers are the real hazard

Scheduled data can be avoided. Scheduled central bank decisions can be avoided. Unscheduled remarks from central bank officials cannot.

A single sentence from a Fed governor at a conference can shift the dollar by 30 pips. The calendar lists the event as "speaks" with a time, but the content and the exact moment of the key sentence are unknown. News wires publish the headline within seconds, and the market has already moved.

For scalpers, speech events combine the worst features of news: wide spreads, thin liquidity, and no scheduled release time. Some officials give long speeches with one or two market-moving lines buried in the text.

Practical ways to handle this include checking the calendar daily for speakers, being wary of positions held during Q&A sessions, and using smaller sizes on days with heavy speaker schedules.

Another detail is that some speakers are far more influential than others. The chair of the central bank moves markets, a regional president less so, though even the minor voices can cause spikes in thin hours.

Which speakers have caused the biggest moves on the pairs traded, and was there any warning?