limit entry or wait for the break?

[Shadow Trader]

Setup: price approaches a level that's worth trading. Option A is a limit order sitting at the level. Option B is waiting for price to break or close beyond it, then entering with a market or stop order.

A in practice: best price, tight stop behind the level, a good reward-to-risk ratio. The downsides are no confirmation, so a failing level fills the order and then hits the stop, and the occasional touch that comes within a fraction of a pip without filling while the move runs without you.

B in practice: the signal is real. But the entry is later and further from the level, so the stop is wider or the target is smaller, and in a fast market a stop order can fill worse than quoted.

Quick maths with invented numbers, spread ignored. Limit at the level, stop 4 pips, target 6. Breakeven win rate is 4 / (4 + 6) = 40%. Now the confirmation entry comes 2 pips later, with the same invalidation and the same target. Risk is 6, reward is 4, and breakeven jumps to 6 / (6 + 4) = 60%.

So confirmation has to filter out enough losers to pay for a 20-point jump in the hurdle. Sometimes it does. It's worth checking rather than assuming.

Which do you lean on, and have you ever logged how often a limit order touched within a pip without filling?