GBPUSD on days after a big BoE surprise: second-day behaviour

[FXS London Scalper]

After a Bank of England decision that surprises the market, the first reaction gets the attention. What the next London morning looks like for scalping is a separate question, and you can check it from the historical record.

Method:

• List BoE meetings since 2022 (decisions come at 12:00 London) where GBPUSD moved more than, say, 80 pips on the day.
• For each, record the next day's 08:00 to 10:00 range and compare with the 20-day average.
• Record whether the direction continued or reversed.
• Note spreads at 08:00 and 08:05.

There are only eight scheduled meetings a year, so a sample of big-surprise days will be in single digits. That's enough to see whether ranges are bigger on the following morning, which is a plausible effect, but nowhere near enough to call direction. A 5-to-4 split between continuation and reversal is exactly what chance looks like.

So the realistic use: treat the second day like any high-volatility morning. Wider stops, smaller size, normal setups. Don't pick a side based on the decision.

The same check could be done for Fed or ECB surprises, which gives more events. Has anyone looked at second-day behaviour after those?