Reviewing a run of losing weeks: separating behaviour from market

[FXS London Scalper]

After a run of losing weeks, the first question is whether the strategy stopped working or you changed how you trade it. A journal can answer that in an evening.

Checks to run on the losing period against your normal months:

• Number of trades. Were there noticeably more than usual, and what quality grade were the extra ones?
• Average loss. If it's normal, the stop isn't the issue.
• Results by hour. Were the first-hour results normal while the losses came later?

A hypothetical pattern that is very common: trade count 30% above usual, extra trades mostly C quality, first-hour results normal, losses concentrated after 10:30. That points to behaviour, trading later in the morning to "make it back", not a broken strategy.

Changes that follow from that pattern:

• Hard stop at a fixed time, such as 10:30, unless there's scheduled data.
• A maximum number of trades per day.
• Weekly review moved to Friday afternoon, so problems are noticed before Monday.

If the checks instead show normal trade counts and worse results on A setups, that's a different situation: market regime, and worth a different response.

What's the first thing you check when a bad run happens?