Market Commentary Is a Story Written After the Fact

[Shadow Trader]

Daily market wraps, analyst notes, and social posts all share one feature: they explain price that has already moved. The explanation sounds authoritative because a cause is attached to every candle, yet the same writer could often have attached the opposite cause to the opposite move.

Reading commentary critically starts with checking tense. A statement describing why a pair fell is a narrative. A statement naming a level, a condition, and an invalidation point is a forecast that can be tested. Only the second kind deserves a place in a trader's notes.

Several questions help separate the two. Was the view published before the move or after? Does it state what would prove it wrong? Does the author have a visible reason to prefer one direction, such as a position, a product, or an audience that rewards drama? Is a single factor offered as the explanation for something that plausibly had many causes?

Commentary still has value as a map of what other participants are discussing. Knowing that attention is clustered around a rate decision or a political headline helps anticipate when volatility may arrive.

Used that way, commentary informs scheduling and context, not entries. The decision to trade should come from the written method, with outside opinion treated as background colour.