After a news spike, price often retraces some of the move. How much, and how often? A journal can answer this for your pairs.
What to record after each major release:
- Pair, event, time.
- Size of initial move (first 1–2 minutes).
- Maximum retracement in the next 15, 30, 60 minutes.
- Whether price returned to the pre-news level.
After 30–50 events:
- Average retracement percentage.
- How often full reversion occurred.
- Which events had the most reversion.
Typical findings might include: small surprises often fully revert; large surprises retrace 30–50% then continue.
This gives a data-based foundation for post-news fades or follow-through trades.
Has anyone tracked this? What did your data show?
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Post-news mean reversion: what a journal can reveal
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FXS London Scalper
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Post-news mean reversion: what a journal can reveal
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Shadow Trader
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Re: Post-news mean reversion: what a journal can reveal
Forums fill with equity curves and big green days. Rarely does anyone post the three flat weeks before it, the days the platform was switched off, or the account that blew up and was never mentioned again.
Comparing a normal week against a screenshot of someone's best month creates pressure to trade bigger, faster or looser. That pressure is invisible and relentless, and it tends to arrive right after a quiet or losing stretch, when the temptation to catch up is strongest.
Selection does the rest. People post wins. They post them when they're proud, and they rarely post the average. A thread full of screenshots is a sample of the best results from thousands of accounts, and it says nothing about what a typical month looks like.
There's also no way to check any of it. A screenshot can be edited, a demo account can be passed off as live, and a single lucky day can be framed as a method.
A better benchmark is the trader's own log, measured against a fixed set of rules and costs over a long enough period to mean something. Progress shows up as a slow improvement in expectancy and a smaller worst drawdown, which makes poor screenshot material.
Do screenshots from other traders ever change the way a session is approached, even a little?
Comparing a normal week against a screenshot of someone's best month creates pressure to trade bigger, faster or looser. That pressure is invisible and relentless, and it tends to arrive right after a quiet or losing stretch, when the temptation to catch up is strongest.
Selection does the rest. People post wins. They post them when they're proud, and they rarely post the average. A thread full of screenshots is a sample of the best results from thousands of accounts, and it says nothing about what a typical month looks like.
There's also no way to check any of it. A screenshot can be edited, a demo account can be passed off as live, and a single lucky day can be framed as a method.
A better benchmark is the trader's own log, measured against a fixed set of rules and costs over a long enough period to mean something. Progress shows up as a slow improvement in expectancy and a smaller worst drawdown, which makes poor screenshot material.
Do screenshots from other traders ever change the way a session is approached, even a little?