Gold spike after US data: trade the reversion or stand aside?

[FXS London Scalper]

US data at 13:30 UK often produces a sharp spike in gold. The question every gold scalper faces: fade it, follow it, or stay out?

Factors that favour fading the spike:
- The data surprise was small, but the spike was large.
- Gold spiked into a significant higher-timeframe level.
- Yields moved less than gold suggested.
- The spike happened in seconds with little follow-through in the next minute.

Factors that favour following:
- The data surprise was large (well outside consensus).
- Yields and the dollar confirm the gold move.
- The first pullback is shallow (under 30%).

Factors that favour standing aside:
- Mixed data (e.g. headline strong, details weak).
- Spread still very wide.
- Price oscillating violently in both directions.

A practical rule many gold scalpers use: no entry in the first two minutes. Then decide based on the pullback. Shallow pullback = follow. Deep pullback (over 60%) = consider a fade toward the pre-data level.

Do you have stats on gold's post-data reversion? How often does the first spike fully retrace within an hour?

[Shadow Trader]

The Mexican peso trades in a way that fools people used to majors. Daily ranges look huge, so the chart seems full of opportunity. The reality underneath is lumpy liquidity and wide spreads that behave differently across the day.

Peak activity is during US hours, tied to Mexico City trading and US data. Outside those hours, the pair can sit still with a wide spread, then jump when a headline appears. US politics, especially anything involving trade or borders, hits it directly.

Gaps are common after weekends and holidays, since the peso reacts to news over the break and the first prices are far from Friday's close. A stop placed on Friday gets filled at the open, with a gap that can be 100 pips or more.

Spreads of 20 to 60 pips are normal, so a scalp needs a big move to pay. The pair rewards patience and punishes tight stops.

Carry is the other factor. The peso has a high yield, so positions held overnight show a swap credit or debit that matters.

For intraday scalpers, the best window is usually the New York morning, when spreads narrow and flows are heaviest. Everything else is a gamble.

Which hours have been the most workable for USDMXN, and how wide are the spreads in them?