Frankfurt open ahead of London: useful lead or noise?

[FXS London Scalper]

Frankfurt opens an hour before London (07:00 UK). Some traders watch the 07:00–08:00 move for hints about the London open. Others think it's noise.

Arguments that Frankfurt hour is useful:

- German and eurozone desks start trading, especially in EUR crosses.
- German data often comes out at 07:00 UK, and the reaction sets the tone.
- Moves in this hour sometimes mark levels that London tests.
- A strong directional Frankfurt hour often continues into London.

Arguments against:

- Liquidity is still thinner than London. Moves can be exaggerated.
- London traders arriving at 08:00 frequently reverse the Frankfurt move.
- A lot of the activity is position adjustment before London, not new information.

A way to test it: record direction of EURUSD 07:00–08:00 and 08:00–09:00 for 60 days. Count how often they match. If it's around 50%, the Frankfurt hour isn't telling you much. If it's 60% or above, it may be worth incorporating.

Have you tracked this? Does Frankfurt lead on your pairs?