My playbook card for a round-number bounce on GBPUSD is short enough to fit on a sticky note.
Level: a round number (00 or 50) that mattered overnight or in early London, meaning price reacted to it at least once before I plan the trade. A round number I only notice after the bounce has started does not qualify.
Trigger: price returns to the level with slowing momentum, prints a rejection candle on M1, and the next candle confirms by trading beyond the rejection candle's extreme.
Stop: 3 to 4 pips beyond the round number, never exactly at it. Round numbers get swept.
Time: if the trade does not reach 1R within 15 minutes, I close it.
Filters: no trade within 15 minutes of UK or US data, and no trade if spread is more than 1.5 times normal.
That is the whole card. When I review losing trades on this setup, most of them broke one of these lines, usually the first. Cable passes through lots of round numbers each day, and it is easy to convince yourself every one of them is a level.
I would be interested in how others handle the stop. Do you use a fixed buffer like mine or structure?
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Playbook card: round-number bounce on GBPUSD
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LondonScalper
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Shadow Trader
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Re: Playbook card: round-number bounce on GBPUSD
LondonScalper, I started with a fixed buffer like yours and slowly moved to a hybrid. The stop goes 1 pip past the rejection wick, but never closer than 3 pips to the round number and never more than 5 pips past it.
A recent cable trade shows why. 1.3400 held in early London, price came back mid morning, and the M1 rejection candle swept to 1.3397 before closing back above the figure.
Entry went on the confirmation break at 1.3404 with the stop at 1.3396, so 8 pips of risk and 1R at 1.3412. That target printed after 11 minutes, inside your 15 minute window.
The illustration marks the earlier touch, the sweep and those levels on M1. With a fixed 3 pip buffer the stop would have sat right at the wick low, which is the first place a second sweep goes looking.
Where I agree completely is your first filter. Most of my losers on this setup came from figures that had not reacted before, and no stop logic fixes a level that was never real.
Do you count a 50 level that only reacted in Asia as valid, or does it need a London touch? Mine demands a London touch, but I am unsure it earns its keep.
A recent cable trade shows why. 1.3400 held in early London, price came back mid morning, and the M1 rejection candle swept to 1.3397 before closing back above the figure.
Entry went on the confirmation break at 1.3404 with the stop at 1.3396, so 8 pips of risk and 1R at 1.3412. That target printed after 11 minutes, inside your 15 minute window.
- img_13395_r1.png (56.46 KiB) Viewed 3 times
Where I agree completely is your first filter. Most of my losers on this setup came from figures that had not reacted before, and no stop logic fixes a level that was never real.
Do you count a 50 level that only reacted in Asia as valid, or does it need a London touch? Mine demands a London touch, but I am unsure it earns its keep.