SNB decision days: why I stop trading the franc crosses entirely

[Fairman]

SNB decision days: why I stop trading the franc crosses entirely

Swiss National Bank meetings are less frequent than most central banks, and that alone makes them a bigger deal when they come round. The SNB has a history of surprising markets, and everyone who has been trading a while remembers the January 2015 floor removal, when EURCHF moved more in minutes than it normally moves in years.

That doesn't happen often, and I'm not suggesting every meeting is a disaster waiting to happen. But the risk is asymmetric. If a scalper on USDCHF or EURCHF is in a trade when a surprise lands, the move can blow through stops with large slippage, and some brokers may widen spreads massively or pause quoting.

My rule is simple: on SNB decision days I don't hold any CHF positions into the announcement, and I don't open new ones until the initial reaction has settled, usually at least an hour. I also check that I don't have pending orders on franc pairs that could be triggered in the spike.

It costs me a session on those pairs a few times a year, which is nothing. The reaction after the dust settles can actually be a good trading environment because the market has new information to work with.

Also know your broker's policy on negative balances and gap fills, just in case.

[Fairman]

Bear in mind the SNB also intervenes in the currency market between meetings, and those moves aren't scheduled. They don't usually create the same kind of shock as a policy surprise, but they can push CHF hard in a short time. If USDCHF or EURCHF suddenly moves sharply with no news, intervention is one possible reason. I don't try to trade on that suspicion, but I do tighten up on franc pairs if I notice unusual moves that I can't link to anything on the calendar. Better to be a bit cautious for no reason than to be in a full size trade on the wrong side of the central bank.

[Fairman]

Question for those who trade CHF pairs a lot: do you also step back from EURUSD and other majors on SNB days? A big franc move can spill into the dollar and euro, especially if it happens during London. I usually keep trading the majors but with smaller size around the announcement window, because the spillover risk is real but much smaller than direct CHF exposure. I'm not sure that's the best balance, and I'd be interested in how others handle it. If the decision lands during London hours, EURUSD can wobble too, mostly through EURCHF.