A surprise geopolitical headline hit during the London session this month, and it showed me a gap in my EURUSD playbook. I changed a few rules afterwards.
What happened: I was long EURUSD from a normal morning setup when the headline came out. Within a minute, the dollar spiked, spreads widened, and my stop was filled worse than planned. Nothing on the calendar had warned of it, because there was nothing scheduled.
The gap: my playbook only covered scheduled news. I had no rule for what to do when unscheduled news hits during a trade or between trades.
Changes:
- Any unexpected headline that moves EURUSD more than 15 pips in a minute: close open positions and stop trading for at least 30 minutes.
- After that pause, trade only at half size for the rest of the session.
- If the story is still developing, which usually means more headlines are likely, no trading for the rest of the day.
- I now keep a news feed visible on the second monitor during London. Not to trade headlines, but to notice them quickly.
I cannot predict geopolitical events, and I do not try to trade them. The aim is simply to limit the damage when one arrives in the middle of a normal morning.
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Surprise geopolitics this month: what changed in my EURUSD playbook
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LondonScalper
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Shadow Trader
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Re: Surprise geopolitics this month: what changed in my EURUSD playbook
LondonScalper, one thing I would question is closing at market inside that first minute. When I tested a similar rule, the spread on EURUSD was often still 2 or 3 pips wide at the moment the 15 pip trigger fired, so the exit itself was the most expensive part of the event.
What I do instead depends on whether a hard stop is already on the server. If it is, I leave the position alone for about three minutes and only close once the spread is back near normal, since the stop already caps the damage.
If there is no stop, or it was a mental one, I close straight away and accept the cost. That case is the one the rule really protects against.
On the news feed, price nearly always reached me before the headline did. In my log the first wire line arrived 20 to 40 seconds after the move started, so the feed tells me why rather than when.
How do you decide a story is still developing? I use a rough test: a second headline on the same subject within 15 minutes of the first means no more trading for the day.
What I do instead depends on whether a hard stop is already on the server. If it is, I leave the position alone for about three minutes and only close once the spread is back near normal, since the stop already caps the damage.
If there is no stop, or it was a mental one, I close straight away and accept the cost. That case is the one the rule really protects against.
On the news feed, price nearly always reached me before the headline did. In my log the first wire line arrived 20 to 40 seconds after the move started, so the feed tells me why rather than when.
How do you decide a story is still developing? I use a rough test: a second headline on the same subject within 15 minutes of the first means no more trading for the day.