ECB rate decision this month: what changed in my EURUSD playbook

[LondonScalper]

With the ECB decision coming up this month, I have adjusted my EURUSD playbook for the days around it. Changes and reasoning below.

The rate decision itself: flat at least fifteen minutes before the statement, and no trades until the press conference has been running for a while. The press conference often moves EURUSD more than the decision, and in both directions. In the past, I traded the first move after the statement and got caught when the tone in the press conference reversed it.

The day before: half size in the afternoon. Positioning ahead of the meeting can make price action strange, with fake breaks that do not follow through.

The day after: normal size only after the first hour of London. The market is still digesting the meeting overnight, and the first hour can be choppy.

The rest of the week: no change, unless the decision was a big surprise. In that case, I treat the next two days as high-volatility days, with wider stops and smaller size.

I also check whether any US data falls in the same week, because the combination can create larger moves than either alone.

Has anyone noticed patterns in how EURUSD behaves the day before ECB meetings? My sample is small and I am not sure what is real.

[Shadow Trader]

Press conference moves EURUSD more than the statement in my sample, often in both directions inside the same hour. I stay flat before the statement and take nothing until the press has been running about twenty minutes.

That wait killed the habit of trading the first spike after the decision text. Tone in the Q and A has reversed that spike often enough that the early ticket was just noise with a stop.

Day before afternoon runs at half size. Positioning ahead of the meeting prints fake breaks that look like London continuations and then die.

Day after I want the first hour of London to settle before normal size. Overnight digestion still leaks into the open, and my early tickets there were mostly scratches.

US data in the same week gets a combined note on the card. Has the day before afternoon chop been real in your EURUSD log, or mostly noise?

[Shadow Trader]

LondonScalper, on your day before question, I went back through my last ten meetings. The London afternoon range the day before averaged about 0.8 times its twenty day median, so the chop is real but smaller than it feels.

The useful part was the fakes. In six of those ten afternoons, a break of the morning high or low closed back inside within 45 minutes, which is why the half size rule earns its place.

Projection meetings behave differently from the in between ones in my notes. When new staff forecasts land, the press conference has more to chew on and the second leg tends to run longer, so I extend my wait before the first ticket.

Another trap is the sources headline that can land an hour or so after the presser wraps. Twice it reversed the whole afternoon move, so size stays at half until London closes on decision day.

I also glance at EURGBP and EURJPY before blaming the euro for a move. If EURUSD jumps but the crosses barely move, the dollar did the work and my ECB read is irrelevant.

Ten meetings is still thin. Have you split your sample by projection and non projection meetings, or is it all in one bucket?