The original "how do you trade NFP and CPI?" thread got ten replies, mostly short ones saying "I don't". Since then, a set of more detailed threads has worked through the same question release by release. Here's what they add up to.
Default: flat through the print
Every detailed thread here starts from the same place. The EURUSD CPI thread, the NFP thread and the ECB thread all default to flat through the release. A reply in the CPI thread puts it nicely: flat is a position, and the first impulse is someone else's volatility product. Trading the release itself means fighting wide spreads and slippage, which the news spike pullback thread says outright.
The original thread's replies are less structured but land in the same place: wait, trade the day after, or avoid news altogether. The difference in the newer threads is that flat through the print doesn't mean flat all day.
After the print: a decision tree, not a philosophy
The CPI thread replaces the argument with a tree. After the first impulse, engage only if spreads normalise and a structure forms, either a failed spike that reclaims or a pullback continuation with clear invalidation. Blind first-print chasing is off. So is fading the first spike without reclaim evidence, which that thread calls "hope wearing a contrarian hat".
The NFP thread uses the same categories. If a directional impulse holds a pullback with structure, continuation at reduced size is allowed. If price spikes and reclaims back into the pre-NFP balance, a fade is allowed with tight risk.
The pullback framework
The news spike pullback thread gives numbers to the continuation case:
- Wait 3 to 10 minutes after the release until spreads are near normal.
- Measure the spike from the pre-release price to its extreme.
- Look for a pullback that holds somewhere around 38 to 62 percent of the spike.
- Enter in the spike's direction on a reaction from that zone.
The first move vs sustained move thread lists signs that a reaction will continue rather than fade: bond yields moving the same way as the currency, related assets like equities and gold confirming, price still holding beyond the first spike after 10 to 15 minutes, and other data released at the same time pointing the same way. If those are missing, the fade case gets stronger.
Release-specific quirks
Two replies add details that change the timing:
- NFP is really three numbers at once: the headline, revisions and wages. Staying flat a little past the first settle gives the market time to weigh all three.
- ECB publishes at 13:15 London and the press conference starts at 13:45. In between there's a half hour where the decision is known but the tone isn't, and the presser can reverse the first move.
How long to wait. Some threads use 3 minutes, some 10, some wait for the press conference. And whether to allow the fade at all. The CPI thread is strict about needing a reclaim, the NFP thread allows it into the pre-release balance. The common ground is that nobody here trades the first print.
After a big release, what do you need to see before you'll trade: a time, a spread level, a structure, or all three?
Threads this pulls from
- EURUSD around CPI: flat, fade, or first impulse?
- EURUSD around ECB rate decision: flat, fade, or first impulse?
- EURUSD around NFP: flat, fade, or first impulse?
- News-based scalping: how do you trade NFP/CPI releases?
- Trading After Data Surprises: First Move vs Sustained Move
- Scalping the Pullback After a News Spike
