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Roundup: Stop hunting, broker games or bad placement? What six threads concluded

Discuss 1-minute to 15-minute price action setups, fading intraday momentum, key support/resistance zones, and proven short-term trading methodologies.
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Fairman
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Roundup: Stop hunting, broker games or bad placement? What six threads concluded

Post by Fairman »

Roundup: Stop hunting, broker games or bad placement? What six threads concluded

"Price hit my stop by a pip and reversed" is probably the most common complaint on any trading forum. There are six threads here that look at it seriously, and between them they separate what's real from what's a story we tell ourselves. Here's the joined-up version.

What's real

The conspiracy vs reality thread lays out the part nobody disputes. Orders cluster at obvious levels: round numbers, previous highs and lows, range edges. Stops sit just beyond them. When price pushes through, those stops trigger and create bursts of buying or selling that can fuel a move or a reversal. That's how liquidity works, not a personal attack.

The rigged forex thread adds the other real part: some dealing desk brokers have had conflicts of interest, and regulators have fined firms for unfair fills and price manipulation. Spread widening and slippage take money from traders. Both things are true at once.

Sweep or noise?

The sweep vs noise thread gives a usable test. After your stop gets taken, did price close back inside the range on the sweeping candle, and did it then break structure the other way? If yes, it looks like a sweep. If price just wobbled around your level, it was noise, and the stop was probably too close. A reply adds that sweeps happen at obvious levels. A stop at a random spot in the middle of nowhere wasn't hunted.

The sweep depth thread makes it testable: measure the excursion beyond the level in ATR units on your timeframe, plus how many candles close outside it. Reversals in many intraday samples come from shallow excursions. Deep ones with closes outside the level start looking like breakouts.

Check your own stops

Most of the practical advice is about auditing yourself first:
  • Go through your last ten stop-outs and measure how far past the stop price went before reversing. If it's usually a few pips, the stop placement is the problem.
  • Note the clock time of each stop. A reply in the troubleshooting thread suggests you might find a cluster at rollover or around releases.
  • Check whether the stop sat at a level or at a fixed distance that happened to land near one. Fixed-pip stops end up in silly places.
  • Categorise your last twenty losses before deciding the market is rigged. Define the categories first. "Market" tends to be the smallest column.
Rollover and other feeds

A reply in the broker myth thread gives rollover more weight than it usually gets. Around 5pm New York, spreads on many pairs blow out, and a stop near price can be triggered on the bid or ask with no real move on the chart. The conspiracy thread suggests comparing your broker's chart with other feeds: if yours shows a wick to your stop and two others don't, screenshot it and ask.

The practical response

Move the stop beyond the obvious level with a buffer, and cut size to keep the risk the same. One suggestion was half an ATR beyond the level on the majors as a starting point. You give up a bit of R per trade and get fewer stop-outs at the extreme. And if the "hunting" mostly stops once you do that, a reply points out, it was placement all along.

Has anyone actually measured how far past their stops price went before reversing? What buffer did you settle on?

Threads this pulls from
It’s Fairman :geek:
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