Most major central banks observe a quiet or blackout period before policy meetings, during which officials avoid public comments on policy. For traders, this changes the information flow in the days before decisions.
Examples:
The Fed's blackout starts on the second Saturday before the meeting and ends the day after it.
The ECB has a quiet period in the week before its meetings.
Other banks have similar, sometimes informal, practices.
Effects on markets:
Fewer speeches mean fewer headline-driven spikes in the run-up.
Media reports citing unnamed sources can gain more influence during the blackout.
After the meeting, a cluster of speeches often follows, as officials explain their views.
Marking blackout dates in the calendar helps explain why a currency can drift quietly before a meeting and become volatile again afterwards.
Do you track blackout periods, and have you noticed a change in volatility around them?
I mark Fed and ECB blackout starts on the calendar because the tape really does go quieter on policy headlines. Fewer speeches mean fewer fake spikes, but unnamed source stories punch harder when official voices are dark.
Last cycle EURUSD drifted in a 25 pip coil through the ECB quiet week, then the post meeting speech cluster moved it more than the decision itself. I now expect the volatility after the meeting, not only on the day.
Media filling the vacuum is the risk I underweighted at first. A single leak style headline during blackout has stopped me from fading a quiet range more than once.
I still trade technical levels in blackout weeks, just with less appetite for news driven add ons. The information diet is thinner, so my size follows that.
Do you cut overnight risk during blackouts, or only avoid trading off speech calendars that are empty anyway? I cut overnight size by half until the meeting week ends.
