The first M15 candle of London on GBPUSD, using its high and low as the day's early boundaries

[Fairman]

The first M15 candle of London on GBPUSD, using its high and low as the day's early boundaries

simple idea I've been using on cable. I mark the high and low of the first M15 candle after the London open and treat those two lines as the early boundaries for the morning. Not a prediction, just a reference.

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If price breaks one side and an M5 candle closes outside it, I wait for a pullback to the broken line. If the line holds as support or resistance on that pullback, I take the trade with the stop on the other side of the line, or at the box midpoint if the box is big. Target is the next obvious M5 swing, and I take part there.

What I skip: days where that first candle is huge, because the boundaries are too far apart and the stop makes no sense. I also skip if the break happens within a couple of minutes of a data release. And if price breaks one side, comes back in and breaks the other, I stop trading it for the day. That kind of whip tells me the early structure is unreliable.

Curious if anyone uses the first candle on other pairs or whether cable is just a good fit.

[Fairman]

To answer the question about other pairs, I tried the same first candle idea on EURUSD for a few weeks. It works, but the first M15 candle on euro is often smaller and the breaks are less clean, so I get more fake moves out of it. Cable seems to suit it because the London open on GBPUSD usually has real intent behind it. If you test it elsewhere, I would compare how often price breaks one side and never comes back inside, that number tells you a lot.

[Fairman]

What counts as huge for me is anything bigger than roughly a third of the average daily range for the pair. At that size the two lines are so far apart that the retest entry and a stop at the midpoint still means a large risk, and the next M5 swing is often closer than the stop. On those days I just watch. They tend to be news driven anyway, and the candle itself has already done most of the moving for the morning.

[Fairman]

One more thing on management. Once price reaches the next M5 swing and I take part off, the stop for the remainder goes just under the broken line rather than to entry. If the line held once as support, it should keep holding while the move is healthy. If price closes back inside the box after that, the morning has turned messy and I am happy to be out with what I already banked rather than waiting for the other side.