Live notes: AUDUSD during NY open

[LondonScalper]

Notes from today's NY open on AUDUSD, written up mostly for my own journal.

London context: AUDUSD drifted lower all morning after weak Chinese data overnight, with a clean lower high around 10:15. No Tier-1 US data until the afternoon, so the 14:30 open had no landmine nearby. That is the only situation where I bother with Aussie at the NY open.

What happened: a small push lower at 14:32, a pullback into the 10:15 level by 14:50, then a stall. I took one short with a stop above the level and a target at the London low. It hit the target at 15:20, roughly 1.4R after costs. Spread was 0.3 the whole time, which is normal for my account.

What I skipped: a second short at 15:40 that looked similar but came after the move was already 80 percent of the day's average range. Too late in the move, so I wrote it down as a skip.

The skips are part of the notes on purpose. A week of these entries shows me whether NY open AUDUSD is worth any screen time at all, or whether I should just stop after London. So far it is about breakeven over six weeks.

[Fairman]

So far it is about breakeven over six weeks.

Since the point of the notes is deciding whether it's worth screen time, it might help to fix the sample size before deciding. If it's roughly one trade a day when the condition is met, six weeks is maybe 20 to 30 trades. With individual results spread by around 1R, the uncertainty on the average after 25 trades is about 0.2R either way, so breakeven so far is consistent with a small edge or a small loss. A cleaner approach is to pick a number in advance, say 60 trades, along with the result that would keep it, for example an average above +0.15R after costs, and not decide before then. The skips are useful here too. Logging what the skipped trades would have done shows whether the 80% of daily range filter is helping or just cutting winners.