Seconds after PMI prints on GBPJPY: my stand-aside timer

[LondonScalper]

PMI prints on GBPJPY need a different stand-aside timer from bigger releases. It is shorter, but I still respect it.

UK services and manufacturing PMIs usually move GBPJPY less than GDP or inflation data. Typically 15 to 30 pips in the first minute, with a spread spike that lasts maybe 30 to 60 seconds. That is still enough to stop out a tight scalp, and still too much to trade in the first seconds.

My PMI timer:
- Flat two minutes before the release.
- No orders for 90 seconds after the release.
- Between 90 seconds and five minutes: I can trade, but only from levels I marked before the release, at half size, and only if spread is back to normal.
- After five minutes: normal rules, normal size.

When the figure is a big surprise, more than a couple of points away from expectations, I extend the stand-aside to ten minutes and treat the event like a major release.

There is one complication with European PMIs. They come out before the UK figure, so GBPJPY sometimes moves on euro data first. If the euro numbers caused a big move, I add a minute or two to the UK timer.

I keep the two timers on different lines of my card so I do not mix them up on a busy morning.

[Shadow Trader]

LondonScalper, the 90 second PMI timer is close to what I use on GBPJPY, though I stretch it to two minutes when the prior euro print already moved the pair more than 20 pips. That extension has saved me from two bad fills this quarter.

My own log of the last 14 UK services prints shows a median first minute range of about 22 pips, with the two biggest surprises clearing 45. Spreads on my feed usually settle near normal by 70 seconds, but I still wait the full window.

The half size rule between 90 seconds and five minutes matches mine. I also require the level to have been marked before 07:00 London, otherwise the post print bounce is just chasing.

One edge case I would add is a PMI that prints dead on consensus after a big euro move. The pair often drifts for ten minutes with no real edge, so I skip even after the timer ends.

I keep manufacturing and services on the same card for now. Do you give services a longer blackout because it tends to move cable harder?