Position inventory rules into central bank speech

[PropScalpDesk]

Into a scheduled central bank speech in London hours I want inventory flat unless a ticket has an explicit hold plan with a time stop written before the speech day.

Default is flat ten to fifteen minutes before. EURUSD and crosses that sneak yen or cable exposure get checked by name, not by vibe. If I am unsure whether a leftover is speech-sensitive, it is sensitive.

After the speech I do not rush. Spread first, level second, only pre-written ideas. Speeches create narrative itch. Inventory rules exist so the itch cannot spend risk that belonged to the blackout. Prop accounts inherit the same default with less discretion to invent a hold plan on the morning of. Speech days get a red tag on the night sheet even if I expect nothing burger content. Tag drives inventory, content does not.

A concrete case: last time a Fed chair speech landed during the London afternoon I still had a small EURGBP position from the morning. It looked harmless until I checked and realised the euro leg was moving with the dollar on every headline. Now the inventory check happens by name and leg, not just by ticker.

[Shadow Trader]

Your EURGBP case is the one that convinces people the check has to be done by leg. What I'd add is about when the window ends, because the scheduled start is rarely the dangerous minute.

With central bank speeches the prepared text often lands at the start and says little new. The headlines that move cable or the euro tend to come in the Q&A, which can be 30 or 40 minutes in.

So my flat window runs from 15 minutes before the start to 15 minutes after the scheduled end. If the calendar shows no end time, I assume the speech lasts an hour.

That makes a lunchtime speech an expensive afternoon, and I accept it. The alternative was trading the gap between the text and the questions, which looked calm and then wasn't.

I'd also be careful with the red tag only covering calendar events. Board members who aren't flagged high still give interviews that hit the wires, so on days with several speakers I keep size down between the scheduled ones too.

When you say spread first after the speech, do you wait for the Q&A to finish as well? Or do you treat the end of the prepared remarks as the release?

[Shadow Trader]

PropScalpDesk, the speeches that catch me are the ones outside London hours. A Fed chair speaking at 20:00 New York time lands at 01:00 London, and a morning position I decided to keep overnight is suddenly holding through it.

So the night sheet checks the next 24 hours of speakers, not only the London session. If a top tier speaker is due before my next open, any overnight hold needs the same written plan you describe, or it gets closed before I log off.

Pending orders count as inventory in that check too. A sell stop left under the Asia low can fill on a headline at 02:00 and turn into a position I never decided to take.

The other thing worth checking is whether the firm's news rule covers speeches at all. Some lists only restrict data releases, which means a prop account can be allowed to hold through a speech that your own sheet would never allow.

I go with the stricter of the two, which fits your point that prop accounts get less discretion, not more. Do you treat an evening US speech as a reason to go flat before logging off, or only reduce size?