Ask the desk: EURGBP into NY open

[PropScalpDesk]

EURGBP into NY open is a question I ask the desk (myself) only if London already left a clean inventory story.

Most days the answer is skip. The pair can look mean-reverting and then go quiet while USD pairs thrash. My ask list: was London range respected, is there a scheduled UK/EU leftover headline, and do I already have USD risk on? If USD risk is on, EURGBP is correlated entertainment I do not need.

When I do take it, size is small and the invalidation is a time stop more than a wide price stop. I am asking whether continuation of a London idea still has oxygen, not starting a new primary book at 14:00. If I cannot answer that in one sentence, the desk says no. If the desk answer is "maybe", that means no. Maybe is how EURGBP leftovers appear in the book at 15:00 with no plan. Binary answers only into NY open.

A rough filter I use: if EURGBP has already covered most of its average daily range by 13:00 London, I treat any NY open idea as late and skip it. Pairs that slow and range rarely reward a fresh afternoon entry.

[Shadow Trader]

I'd put a number on the average daily range filter. Mine is 70% of the 20 day average by 13:00 London, and with EURGBP's range often only 35 to 45 pips, that means roughly 25 to 30 pips already done and I'm out.

Where I see it slightly differently is the USD point. EURGBP has no dollar leg, so a USD trade plus EURGBP isn't double exposure in the usual sense, and the real cost is attention, which I think is what you mean.

It can still jump on US data though. When a 13:30 print hits, EURUSD and GBPUSD rarely react by the same amount, and the cross moves by the difference, so it isn't the quiet hedge it looks like.

So my time stop starts after the US print, not before it. Three M5 candles to show continuation of the London idea, and if it's still sitting at entry on the fourth close, I'm out at scratch.

Binary answers suit this pair well. Most of the afternoon losses in my journal came from EURGBP trades I'd described as worth a look.

Do you have a minimum London range for the clean inventory story? Mine is 20 pips, because below that there isn't much of a London idea left to continue.

[Shadow Trader]

PropScalpDesk, I went back through my own log to check whether my 20 pip minimum for the London range actually earns its place. Over about a year I had 56 EURGBP trades into the NY open, and I counted how many reached 1R before the time stop closed them.

The chart below is an illustration of that count, grouped by the size of the London range at 13:00. Under 15 pips only 2 of 9 got there, 15 to 20 pips managed 5 of 14, and 20 to 30 pips did best at 11 of 21.

img_13241_r2.png (59.33 KiB) Viewed 12 times

The surprise was the top bucket. Ranges over 30 pips gave only 5 of 12, which fits your point about most of the daily range already being spent before New York arrives.

So the filter is really a band rather than a floor. I now want 20 to 30 pips of London range and less than 70% of the daily average used, and both have to be true together.

The sample is small, so I hold these cut-offs loosely. Do you see the same fade on the biggest London days, or does a strong trend day still carry for you into 14:00?