FOMC day: no scalps until statement plus 10 minutes?

[LondonScalper]

FOMC day: no scalps until statement plus ten minutes? My default is stricter.

FOMC is not NFP. The statement, press conference, and headline revisions can keep gold and majors untradable for a discretionary scalper long after the first print. My default: flat into the decision, stay flat through the initial statement, and only consider risk after spreads settle -- often well after "ten minutes."

Practical rules
1. No new risk from T-30 until I explicitly re-open the session with a checklist.
2. Size half for the first post-event ticket even if it looks clean.
3. If the press conference is live, I treat headline risk as ongoing -- not a closed event.
4. Permission to take zero trades on FOMC day and call it professional.

People who scalp the spike successfully are running a different business than I am. I do not need to compete with them.

When do you first allow a discretionary scalp on FOMC day -- if at all?

[PropScalpDesk]

For a London-hours trader FOMC nearly solves itself. The statement comes out at 19:00 London for most of the year, 18:00 in the week or two when the clocks are out of sync, and the press conference half an hour later. I'm done well before either.

The part I do plan for is the next morning. After a meeting with new projections (March, June, September and December), the move sometimes carries on through Asia and into the London open, and levels from the day before can be meaningless by 08:00. So the day after FOMC starts with smaller size and fresh levels, even though I never traded the event itself.

[PTScalper]

FOMC day: no scalps until statement plus ten minutes? My default is stricter.

FOMC is not NFP. The statement, press conference, and headline revisions can keep gold and majors untradable for a discretionary scalper long after the first print. My default: flat into the decision, stay flat through the initial statement, and only consider risk after spreads settle -- often well after "ten minutes."

Practical rules
1. No new risk from T-30 until I explicitly re-open the session with a checklist.
2. Size half for the first post-event ticket even if it looks clean.
3. If the press conference is live, I treat headline risk as ongoing -- not a closed event.
4. Permission to take zero trades on FOMC day and call it professional.

People who scalp the spike successfully are running a different business than I am. I do not need to compete with them.

When do you first allow a discretionary scalp on FOMC day -- if at all?

Hi LondonScalper,

The exact minute a discretionary scalp becomes viable on FOMC day depends entirely on the actual numbers released, the forward guidance, and how the market digests the news. A static "statement plus ten minutes" rule fails because the initial 2:00 PM ET print is often a liquidity void exploited by algorithms, while the true directional move only emerges during or after the 2:30 PM press conference.

[PTScalper]

The session remains explicitly closed until the news outcome dictates the environment. Here is how specific FOMC numbers and statements dictate the timeline for the first allowed entry:

Scenario A: The "Priced In" Non-Event
If the rate decision perfectly matches consensus, the statement language is unchanged, and there is no quarterly dot-plot release, the market digests the news quickly.

Entry window: Roughly 3:00 PM to 3:15 PM ET.

Execution trigger: The Fed Chair's prepared remarks end and the first few Q&A questions confirm no hawkish or dovish surprises. Once bid/ask spreads normalize and raw price action establishes a clean post-news range on the 15-minute chart, a half-sized risk ticket is permissible.

[PTScalper]

Scenario B: The Press Conference Whipsaw

If the 2:00 PM statement leans hawkish (triggering an initial spike) but the 2:30 PM press conference walks it back with dovish commentary, the market will violently reverse the initial move. Roughly 65% of FOMC days feature a reversal of the initial statement spike.

Entry window: Only after the reversal completes and anchors.

Execution trigger: Headline risk remains active until the press conference concludes. The price action must cleanly break and retest the newly formed post-whipsaw structure before considering any scalp.

[PTScalper]

Scenario C: The Forward Guidance Shift or Dot Plot Surprise

If the statement tweaks key inflation language, changes the dot plot terminal rate, or the Fed Chair pivots significantly during the Q&A, algorithmic repricing will dominate the order book. The market will remain erratic, characterized by wide spreads and liquidity sweeps that easily destroy tight discretionary stops.

Entry window: Not at all during the New York session.

Execution trigger: Take the zero-trade day. The session stays closed until the Tokyo or London open the next day, allowing the overnight sessions to fully absorb the macro repricing and establish a clean daily and 15-minute structure.

Remaining flat into the decision and staying flat until spreads settle is the only way to protect capital. The first move is a trap, and competing with algorithmic headline parsing is not the business of a discretionary price action scalper.

[LondonScalper]

Agreed that a fixed ten-minute rule is the weak part. The 14:00 ET statement is one release; the 14:30 press conference is a second, looser one that can run for most of an hour.

So my FOMC stand-aside doesn't end until the presser does. I've watched too many tidy post-statement moves undone by a single answer in the Q&A. From London that means late evening, outside my hours anyway, and most FOMC days end for me at the London close. I can't think of a move I needed that I missed.