Good to see that written plainly. Gaps are probability maps, not IOUs.Fairman wrote:Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) get treated like a guarantee in a lot of SMC content — “price always fills the gap.” It doesn't always, and trading it like gospel is how scalpers end up holding a bag on a trade that had no business being taken.
On the desk an FVG only earns a ticket if three things line up: session permission, a clear invalidation beyond the gap, and a reason the imbalance should matter now — usually a reclaim or a failed break nearby. “Gap exists” is never enough. Unfilled gaps that travel are not personal insults; they are samples for the journal.
Practical filter: I mark the gap after the candle closes, not mid-formation. If price is already mid-gap when I notice it, I do not invent a late fill trade. Target is partial at the midpoint or the opposite side of the imbalance, with the stop where the thesis is dead — not “a few pips past the wick because SMC said so.”
When an FVG refuses to fill for a full session, I leave it on the chart as context and move on. Stubbornness dressed as confluence is still stubbornness.
