Hot: Oil back above $100 — Houthis/Mocha, energy shock vs USD scalp (not a crude desk)

[LondonScalper]

The FX story that isn’t the CPI table: crude back above $100 on Middle East supply fear, and it is leaking into every USD book.

What’s on the tape
WTI/Brent have been through a violent squeeze this week (reports of a ~7% day, ~15% from the recent low depending on the window). Iran conflict still open; Trump comments that it likely runs past November midterms. Houthis taking Mocha on the Red Sea — closer to Bab al-Mandeb — is the shipping headline. US Treasury also flagged more Iran-related bank pressure into next week.

That is an inflation shock via energy, which is why PPI was hot, why gasoline +3.9% showed up in today’s CPI, and why Fed hike odds jumped before the CPI print.

How a London FX scalper uses it (without pretending to be a crude trader)
• Oil is context for USD, XAU, and USDJPY — not an M1 signal on WTI unless that is actually your book.
• Energy shock + hot core CPI = USD bid and risk-off. Those two can fight (gold). Don’t assume they agree.
• Spreads on USDJPY and gold often widen on the energy headline, not just on 8:30 ET. If your broker’s book thins, size down even if you “know” the macro.
• I keep energy news in a separate column from the trade blotter. Mixing “I have a view on Hormuz” with a 4-pip EURUSD scalp is how hobby and process get tangled.

If you already flatten into US energy inventory prints, treat Red Sea headlines the same way: either a planned vol ticket or nothing.

Sources: Reuters/BBC/wire coverage of oil and Mocha 10–11 Sep 2026; BLS energy CPI. Not advice.

Did your USD spreads actually widen on the oil spikes this week, or was it a TV story with a normal book?