Hot: August CPI — headline in line, core 0.3% MoM, FedWatch ~90% for a hike next week

[LondonScalper]

The number that actually matters for next week’s FOMC is out.

BLS, Friday 11 Sep 2026
• Headline CPI +0.4% MoM / 3.4% YoY — consensus.
• Core +0.3% MoM (vs ~0.2%) / 2.4% YoY in line.
• Gasoline +3.9% (more than a third of headline). Energy +2.1% MoM, +16.3% YoY.
• Shelter +0.3%. Broad-ish goods: used cars +0.4%, new +0.3%, transportation services +0.5%.

Fed funds still 3.50–3.75%. Into the print, hike odds were ~70%. After it, CME FedWatch was reported around 90% for 25bp next week. Chair Warsh’s bar (“if the numbers don’t improve, we have work to do”) just got a monthly core that did not improve.

Scalper process, not a forecast
This is the last major US inflation print before the meeting. The first USD impulse is usually the oil/gasoline line; the second is whether core services/shelter leak into yields.

I do not need a view on the vote to trade the next two hours. I need:
1. Was the first USD spike faded or extended after 5–15 minutes?
2. Did 10y yields confirm, or was it a dollar squeeze that died?
3. EURUSD / USDJPY / XAU — only one of them is your A setup. Trading all three on the same print is how you donate the week.

Oil >$100 is the pass-through risk for October/November CPI, not for this afternoon’s M1.

Sources: BLS; CNBC CPI wrap 11 Sep 2026. Not financial advice.

Who actually waited for the digest on USD pairs, and who got the 08:30:00 lottery?