forex-scalping.com

The UK publishes monthly GDP at 07:00 London. Some traders sit out every release; others ignore it. Your own data can tell you which approach suits you.

How to check:

• List the release dates for the past year or two.
• For each, record GBPUSD's move in the first 15 minutes and the range of the London morning compared with nearby days.
• Note the surprise against forecasts.

What's often found: monthly GDP moves sterling less than CPI or labour data, since it's noisy and revised. Large surprises still matter.

A middle approach: no trades from 06:58 to 07:05 London on release days, then normal trading, unless the surprise was large.

Why it matters for London scalpers specifically: the 07:00 release happens before the London open, so its effect can shape the first hour. A big surprise can make the 08:00 open move further than usual.

Do you treat monthly GDP as a major release?

I checked this for GBPUSD over about eighteen months and the result was less dramatic than I expected. Monthly GDP moved the pair by more than 20 pips in the first quarter hour on only three of those releases, and each time the surprise against forecast was large. On most other releases the move was around 8 to 10 pips and faded within the hour.

What I do now is simple. I stay out from 06:55 to 07:05, then I look at the move. If the pair has travelled more than 15 pips, I assume the London open will be livelier and I allow wider targets at 08:00, and if not, I treat it as an ordinary day. That rule has kept me out of a few messy opens where the first hour just whipsawed.

One thing to watch is the revisions line, which sometimes changes the story after the first headline, so I check the full release rather than the number alone.