The opening jolt in Europe: is it worth taking the other side?
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2026 7:18 am
Fading the first sharp move after the London open is a popular idea, because opening spikes often reverse. It's also one of the more dangerous ways to lose quickly.
Conditions where a fade has a better chance:
How to evaluate it: tag fades in your journal by condition and compare. Fades into levels without news should look clearly different from fades of news spikes; if they don't, the idea needs rethinking.
Do you fade the open, or trade with it?
Conditions where a fade has a better chance:
- The spike runs into a clear level, such as the Asian high or yesterday's high.
- No data due in the first hour.
- The spike is fast but short, without follow-up candles.
- A spike driven by news, for example a 07:00 UK release or overnight headlines.
- A spike that breaks a multi-day range.
- Spreads still wide when you want to enter.
How to evaluate it: tag fades in your journal by condition and compare. Fades into levels without news should look clearly different from fades of news spikes; if they don't, the idea needs rethinking.
Do you fade the open, or trade with it?