Target fixation: holding for the extra pip
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2026 7:10 am
Target fixation: holding for the extra pip
A trade is up three pips with a four-pip target. The scalper watches as price stalls, then slips back. The final pip seems so close that exiting early feels like giving up. Then the trade reverses and ends at a loss.
Fixation on the original target ignores new information. As price approaches, the probability of reaching the target changes, and the remaining expected gain may be lower than the risk of giving back profit.
A systematic approach examines the data: for trades that reached 75 percent of the target, what fraction went on to hit the full target? If it is, say, 55 percent, and the stop is wide, then holding may or may not be worth it.
Some scalpers use partial exits, closing most of the position near the target and leaving a small amount to run. Others adjust the target based on volatility.
Whatever the rule, it should be based on the observed distribution, not on the feeling of being so close.
What proportion of trades that get within a pip of the target end up reaching it?
A trade is up three pips with a four-pip target. The scalper watches as price stalls, then slips back. The final pip seems so close that exiting early feels like giving up. Then the trade reverses and ends at a loss.
Fixation on the original target ignores new information. As price approaches, the probability of reaching the target changes, and the remaining expected gain may be lower than the risk of giving back profit.
A systematic approach examines the data: for trades that reached 75 percent of the target, what fraction went on to hit the full target? If it is, say, 55 percent, and the stop is wide, then holding may or may not be worth it.
Some scalpers use partial exits, closing most of the position near the target and leaving a small amount to run. Others adjust the target based on volatility.
Whatever the rule, it should be based on the observed distribution, not on the feeling of being so close.
What proportion of trades that get within a pip of the target end up reaching it?