The ECB press conference starts after the headline
Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2026 8:14 pm
The ECB press conference starts after the headline
The ECB releases its rate decision at 1:15pm Central European time. The press conference follows at 1:45. Between them, the market has had time to react to the decision, and then the president says something that moves it all again.
The press conference tends to be where the surprises are. Forward guidance, comments on inflation, and answers to journalists all shift expectations. A neutral decision can become a hawkish or dovish event within a few sentences.
For a scalper, the trap is entering based on the decision and then getting caught in the second move. The more patient approach is waiting until about ten minutes into the press conference, by which time the main points have usually been made.
EURUSD is the obvious pair, but EURJPY, EURGBP, and EURCHF often show sharper moves because they carry less dollar noise.
Keeping a record of the initial reaction and the reaction after the conference over several meetings quickly shows how much the second part matters.
A handy exercise is marking the three phases on a chart for the last eight meetings: the decision, the press conference, and the hour after. Colour coding the net move of each shows how often they agree.
How often does the press conference reverse the first reaction?
The ECB releases its rate decision at 1:15pm Central European time. The press conference follows at 1:45. Between them, the market has had time to react to the decision, and then the president says something that moves it all again.
The press conference tends to be where the surprises are. Forward guidance, comments on inflation, and answers to journalists all shift expectations. A neutral decision can become a hawkish or dovish event within a few sentences.
For a scalper, the trap is entering based on the decision and then getting caught in the second move. The more patient approach is waiting until about ten minutes into the press conference, by which time the main points have usually been made.
EURUSD is the obvious pair, but EURJPY, EURGBP, and EURCHF often show sharper moves because they carry less dollar noise.
Keeping a record of the initial reaction and the reaction after the conference over several meetings quickly shows how much the second part matters.
A handy exercise is marking the three phases on a chart for the last eight meetings: the decision, the press conference, and the hour after. Colour coding the net move of each shows how often they agree.
How often does the press conference reverse the first reaction?