Seasonality inside the minute: the first seconds after a release
Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2026 9:02 pm
Volatility doesn't spread evenly across a minute. On a data release at 8:30 New York, the biggest swings often occur in the first two to three seconds, with a second pulse at 10 to 15 seconds, and a third around the 30 second mark.
The shape comes from different participants. High-speed algorithms react within milliseconds. Fast discretionary traders respond in a few seconds. Slower systematic flows and larger desks come in after that.
For a scalper, understanding the sequence is more useful than predicting the number. A move in the first second is mostly algorithmic and often partly reversed. A move that keeps going past 15 seconds is more likely to be real.
It explains why entering during the first spike usually loses, while entering after the retrace sometimes works. By then, spreads begin to calm, quotes are firm, and the direction has an actual reason behind it.
None of this is rigid. Some releases barely move price and others go for minutes. But the shape of a typical reaction is worth watching on tick charts over several releases.
To study the pattern on a given pair, take ten or twenty releases of the same type and align their tick data on the release second. Plot the average absolute price change per second for the first minute. The shape that appears is usually a sharp peak in the first two or three seconds, a smaller bump at ten to fifteen, then a slow decay. The exact timing will differ by pair and by broker feed.
A feed with higher latency shifts the whole curve to the right, which is another way to measure how far behind the live market a given platform really sits. If the peak shows up two seconds after the release instead of in the first second, the feed is delayed, and any strategy built around it will trade yesterday's market.
How long after a major release does the market tend to settle on the pairs followed here?
The shape comes from different participants. High-speed algorithms react within milliseconds. Fast discretionary traders respond in a few seconds. Slower systematic flows and larger desks come in after that.
For a scalper, understanding the sequence is more useful than predicting the number. A move in the first second is mostly algorithmic and often partly reversed. A move that keeps going past 15 seconds is more likely to be real.
It explains why entering during the first spike usually loses, while entering after the retrace sometimes works. By then, spreads begin to calm, quotes are firm, and the direction has an actual reason behind it.
None of this is rigid. Some releases barely move price and others go for minutes. But the shape of a typical reaction is worth watching on tick charts over several releases.
To study the pattern on a given pair, take ten or twenty releases of the same type and align their tick data on the release second. Plot the average absolute price change per second for the first minute. The shape that appears is usually a sharp peak in the first two or three seconds, a smaller bump at ten to fifteen, then a slow decay. The exact timing will differ by pair and by broker feed.
A feed with higher latency shifts the whole curve to the right, which is another way to measure how far behind the live market a given platform really sits. If the peak shows up two seconds after the release instead of in the first second, the feed is delayed, and any strategy built around it will trade yesterday's market.
How long after a major release does the market tend to settle on the pairs followed here?