Elections and referendums: event risk with no scheduled data release
Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2026 8:24 pm
Political events produce moves that are hard to predict and harder to execute through. Votes and referendums come with known dates, but unknown outcomes.
Spreads widen well before results arrive. Liquidity providers reduce risk, and brokers may raise margin requirements or restrict trading. When results come in, price can gap or move violently in seconds.
Brexit night in 2016 is the classic example. GBPUSD fell about 10 percent within hours, with extreme volatility and fill problems.
For scalpers, the options are limited. Stand aside, trade with reduced size and wide stops, or take positions beforehand with a clear understanding of the risk. Fast, tight scalping during result-driven volatility is rarely wise.
A calendar of major elections affecting the currencies in the portfolio helps. It's also worth checking the broker's notices, since policy changes around events are common.
Some of the most profitable days come from events, but so do the most damaging ones.
Brokers sometimes raise margin requirements or widen spreads on affected currencies for the whole week around a vote. Checking the notice board a few days in advance means leverage and costs do not change under an open position at the worst moment.
How do you handle major elections, and do you reduce exposure beforehand?
Spreads widen well before results arrive. Liquidity providers reduce risk, and brokers may raise margin requirements or restrict trading. When results come in, price can gap or move violently in seconds.
Brexit night in 2016 is the classic example. GBPUSD fell about 10 percent within hours, with extreme volatility and fill problems.
For scalpers, the options are limited. Stand aside, trade with reduced size and wide stops, or take positions beforehand with a clear understanding of the risk. Fast, tight scalping during result-driven volatility is rarely wise.
A calendar of major elections affecting the currencies in the portfolio helps. It's also worth checking the broker's notices, since policy changes around events are common.
Some of the most profitable days come from events, but so do the most damaging ones.
Brokers sometimes raise margin requirements or widen spreads on affected currencies for the whole week around a vote. Checking the notice board a few days in advance means leverage and costs do not change under an open position at the worst moment.
How do you handle major elections, and do you reduce exposure beforehand?