Volatility by time of day looks nothing like the daily average
Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2026 7:47 pm
Daily range hides a lot. Inside a single session, volatility swings between near-dead and very active, and the pattern is surprisingly stable from day to day.
On EURUSD, the Asian session usually produces small ranges. The London open brings a sharp jump. Late morning in New York adds more as data and US participants arrive. After about 11am New York, activity fades toward the close.
Plotting average range per 15-minute block over several months makes this clear. Some blocks routinely have three or four times the movement of others.
For a scalper, the implication is that the same setup behaves differently depending on the clock. A 5 pip target might be reached in minutes at 8am London and take an hour at 3am.
Tuning parameters per time block, or simply restricting trading to the most active windows, often improves results more than tweaking the entry.
Each pair has its own profile, and it's worth building one for each instrument traded.
Building the profile takes an afternoon. Pull a few months of one-minute data, convert timestamps to a single time zone, group by quarter-hour and average the high-low range. The resulting chart usually becomes the most-used picture on the desk.
When is your pair most active, and does your strategy exploit it?
On EURUSD, the Asian session usually produces small ranges. The London open brings a sharp jump. Late morning in New York adds more as data and US participants arrive. After about 11am New York, activity fades toward the close.
Plotting average range per 15-minute block over several months makes this clear. Some blocks routinely have three or four times the movement of others.
For a scalper, the implication is that the same setup behaves differently depending on the clock. A 5 pip target might be reached in minutes at 8am London and take an hour at 3am.
Tuning parameters per time block, or simply restricting trading to the most active windows, often improves results more than tweaking the entry.
Each pair has its own profile, and it's worth building one for each instrument traded.
Building the profile takes an afternoon. Pull a few months of one-minute data, convert timestamps to a single time zone, group by quarter-hour and average the high-low range. The resulting chart usually becomes the most-used picture on the desk.
When is your pair most active, and does your strategy exploit it?