Month-end flows and the odd moves that appear in the last days
Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2026 7:42 pm
At the end of each month, large funds rebalance portfolios. When equities or bonds have moved a lot, the currency hedges need adjusting, and that creates flows in the FX market.
These flows cluster around the London 4pm fix on the last business day. The size can be large enough to move major pairs several pips in a short time, often against the prevailing trend.
For scalpers, the effect is hard to predict but easy to notice. Moves that look odd, with no news and no technical reason, may have been rebalancing.
Some traders try to anticipate the direction based on how US equities performed during the month. If stocks rose strongly, funds may need to sell dollars. The relationship isn't reliable, but it gives a rough starting point.
Even without trading it, awareness helps. It explains why a setup that normally works might fail on the last day of the month.
Anyone track month-end behaviour in their journal?
These flows cluster around the London 4pm fix on the last business day. The size can be large enough to move major pairs several pips in a short time, often against the prevailing trend.
For scalpers, the effect is hard to predict but easy to notice. Moves that look odd, with no news and no technical reason, may have been rebalancing.
Some traders try to anticipate the direction based on how US equities performed during the month. If stocks rose strongly, funds may need to sell dollars. The relationship isn't reliable, but it gives a rough starting point.
Even without trading it, awareness helps. It explains why a setup that normally works might fail on the last day of the month.
Anyone track month-end behaviour in their journal?