Closing a runner early is relief-seeking, not risk management
Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2026 8:30 am
There is a specific moment in a winning scalp: price is 5 pips in profit, the target is 8, and a small pullback appears. The urge to close and bank it is strong. Often it is dressed up as prudence, but what is really happening is discomfort relief. Holding an open profit feels worse than holding cash, because the profit can still be lost.
Over many trades the cost adds up. If a plan has a 2R target and half the winners are closed at 1.2R, the average win shrinks by a lot, and a system that was positive on paper turns marginal. The win rate looks great, which makes the problem easy to miss.
To check it, take the journal and compute actual exit in R for each winner against the planned target. Count how many were closed manually before either the target or a trailing rule triggered.
Fixes that remove the decision: use a bracket order with the target already set, or define a mechanical trailing rule, such as moving the stop to break-even only after price reaches a stated level, and nothing else. If an early close is allowed at all, limit it to a specific situation, like imminent news.
What share of your winners get closed manually, and how far below target do they land on average?
Over many trades the cost adds up. If a plan has a 2R target and half the winners are closed at 1.2R, the average win shrinks by a lot, and a system that was positive on paper turns marginal. The win rate looks great, which makes the problem easy to miss.
To check it, take the journal and compute actual exit in R for each winner against the planned target. Count how many were closed manually before either the target or a trailing rule triggered.
Fixes that remove the decision: use a bracket order with the target already set, or define a mechanical trailing rule, such as moving the stop to break-even only after price reaches a stated level, and nothing else. If an early close is allowed at all, limit it to a specific situation, like imminent news.
What share of your winners get closed manually, and how far below target do they land on average?