How long does elevated volatility really last after a release?
Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2026 8:16 am
Most scalpers use a round number for the cooldown, usually 15 minutes, and then never check it. The truth is messier. After some releases the market is back to normal in four or five minutes. After a rate decision followed by a press conference, the elevated range can drag for an hour or more.
Measuring it is not hard. For each type of event, take the one-minute range for every bar after the print and divide it by the median one-minute range at that hour over the last few weeks. Call the market "normal" once the ratio stays below about 1.5 for three bars in a row. Do this for 20 or 30 occurrences of the same release and take the median time to normal, plus the worst case.
The results usually separate events into groups. Fast fade, slow fade, and double-hump releases where a second wave arrives when a speech or a related data point follows. Each group deserves its own timer instead of one flat number.
It also exposes hidden costs. A cooldown that is too long throws away good trades, while one that is too short means entering with spread and slippage still above normal.
What cooldown do you use after major releases, and was the number ever checked against data?
Measuring it is not hard. For each type of event, take the one-minute range for every bar after the print and divide it by the median one-minute range at that hour over the last few weeks. Call the market "normal" once the ratio stays below about 1.5 for three bars in a row. Do this for 20 or 30 occurrences of the same release and take the median time to normal, plus the worst case.
The results usually separate events into groups. Fast fade, slow fade, and double-hump releases where a second wave arrives when a speech or a related data point follows. Each group deserves its own timer instead of one flat number.
It also exposes hidden costs. A cooldown that is too long throws away good trades, while one that is too short means entering with spread and slippage still above normal.
What cooldown do you use after major releases, and was the number ever checked against data?