Central bank blackout periods and the strange quiet before meetings
Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2026 7:11 am
Policymakers stop speaking publicly in the days before a rate decision. That silence removes a regular source of headline volatility, and the market often settles into a narrow, uneasy range.
Ranges in that window can look like perfect conditions for mean reversion. Spreads are normal, volatility is low, and price behaves politely. Then the decision lands and the range dissolves.
The risk is complacency. A strategy tuned in a quiet stretch can pick up a false sense of reliability, and its results look better than they should.
The blackout calendar is public for most major banks. Marking those windows and comparing performance before meetings with other periods shows whether the quiet really helps.
Some traders reduce size on the final day before a decision, since positioning shifts and liquidity gets patchy. Others keep normal size and simply stop earlier on decision day.
Does the pre-meeting lull treat your strategy well, or does it fade right when it matters?
Ranges in that window can look like perfect conditions for mean reversion. Spreads are normal, volatility is low, and price behaves politely. Then the decision lands and the range dissolves.
The risk is complacency. A strategy tuned in a quiet stretch can pick up a false sense of reliability, and its results look better than they should.
The blackout calendar is public for most major banks. Marking those windows and comparing performance before meetings with other periods shows whether the quiet really helps.
Some traders reduce size on the final day before a decision, since positioning shifts and liquidity gets patchy. Others keep normal size and simply stop earlier on decision day.
Does the pre-meeting lull treat your strategy well, or does it fade right when it matters?