Gaps through stops at central bank decisions
Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2026 7:07 am
Interest rate announcements can move price several pips in a fraction of a second, with no trades printed in between. A stop sitting 6 pips away does not trigger at 6 pips. It triggers at the first available price beyond that level, which may be 15 pips away.
The risk is highest at surprises. When a decision differs from the consensus, liquidity providers pull quotes and the price jumps in steps. Stop orders turn into market orders and fill into a thin book.
Even trades on the right side can suffer. A long position hit by a stop-run in the opposite direction can be closed at a terrible price just before the market reverses.
The safest route for scalpers is not holding positions through scheduled decisions at all. For anyone who must, the position size should reflect a loss several times larger than the stop, since that is the realistic worst case.
Reviewing past decision days on tick data shows how large the gaps actually were, which makes the risk concrete.
Have stops ever been skipped by a large gap during a central bank event?
The risk is highest at surprises. When a decision differs from the consensus, liquidity providers pull quotes and the price jumps in steps. Stop orders turn into market orders and fill into a thin book.
Even trades on the right side can suffer. A long position hit by a stop-run in the opposite direction can be closed at a terrible price just before the market reverses.
The safest route for scalpers is not holding positions through scheduled decisions at all. For anyone who must, the position size should reflect a loss several times larger than the stop, since that is the realistic worst case.
Reviewing past decision days on tick data shows how large the gaps actually were, which makes the risk concrete.
Have stops ever been skipped by a large gap during a central bank event?