Gotobi days and the yen's strange morning pressure
Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2026 6:52 am
Japanese companies often settle payments on the 5th, 10th, 15th, 20th, 25th, and the last day of the month, known as gotobi days. Importers need dollars to pay overseas suppliers, and that demand shows up in the Tokyo morning, usually pushing USDJPY up into the 9:55 am Tokyo fixing.
The effect is not guaranteed, and it has weakened or disappeared in some years. But the pattern was visible enough in the past that it became a standard calendar consideration for yen traders.
For scalpers, it creates an uneven day. A gotobi morning can see steady buying pressure and shallow pullbacks, followed by a sharp fade after the fix once the demand is satisfied. Trading against the flow early can be painful, and chasing it late can mean buying the top.
Testing the idea is straightforward. Mark gotobi days on a calendar, compare the Tokyo morning behaviour with non-gotobi days, and see whether anything meaningful emerges for the pairs being traded.
Has the gotobi effect shown up in your data, or does it look like a pattern that faded away?
The effect is not guaranteed, and it has weakened or disappeared in some years. But the pattern was visible enough in the past that it became a standard calendar consideration for yen traders.
For scalpers, it creates an uneven day. A gotobi morning can see steady buying pressure and shallow pullbacks, followed by a sharp fade after the fix once the demand is satisfied. Trading against the flow early can be painful, and chasing it late can mean buying the top.
Testing the idea is straightforward. Mark gotobi days on a calendar, compare the Tokyo morning behaviour with non-gotobi days, and see whether anything meaningful emerges for the pairs being traded.
Has the gotobi effect shown up in your data, or does it look like a pattern that faded away?