The first three seconds of a non-farm payroll release are not tradeable
Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2026 6:47 am
Spreads on EURUSD and USDJPY can balloon from 0.3 pips to 10 or more in the moment the number prints. Quotes flicker, depth vanishes, and platforms often freeze for a second or two.
Anyone who hits a button during that window gets whatever the system serves. Fills land far from the price on screen, and orders sit in a queue until the dust settles. A trade that looked like a perfect reaction to the headline becomes a loss before the first candle completes.
The market also tends to whipsaw. The first move often reverses within seconds as algorithms digest the revisions and the details underneath the headline figure. Chasing the first spike means buying the top or selling the bottom more often than not.
A more workable routine is flat before the release and watching the first minute or two from the sidelines. Entries after the spread settles are usually worse in price but far better in quality.
What is the personal rule for the first minute after major releases, and has breaking it ever paid off?
Anyone who hits a button during that window gets whatever the system serves. Fills land far from the price on screen, and orders sit in a queue until the dust settles. A trade that looked like a perfect reaction to the headline becomes a loss before the first candle completes.
The market also tends to whipsaw. The first move often reverses within seconds as algorithms digest the revisions and the details underneath the headline figure. Chasing the first spike means buying the top or selling the bottom more often than not.
A more workable routine is flat before the release and watching the first minute or two from the sidelines. Entries after the spread settles are usually worse in price but far better in quality.
What is the personal rule for the first minute after major releases, and has breaking it ever paid off?