forex-scalping.com

The calendar ranks releases by impact: high, medium, low. Most scalpers focus on the red ones. Occasionally a low-rated release causes a bigger move than expected.

Examples are common in smaller currencies. The Global Dairy Trade auction affects NZD, since dairy is New Zealand's major export. Swiss CPI can move CHF pairs when the franc is under pressure. Norwegian credit data, Australian building approvals, and Canadian housing starts, each of them can produce a move when the surprise is large.

The reason is liquidity. In thinly traded pairs, a modest piece of news can have an outsized effect, because the book is shallow. A surprise that would be absorbed in EURUSD can push NZDCAD by 20 pips.

Calendars also rank importance by average market reaction. A given release can matter more at a given moment, for example when the central bank has said it's data dependent and the particular measure is one it watches.

A good habit is scanning the calendar for all items in the next few hours on the currencies being traded, not only the highest-rated ones.

Which low-ranked release has caught you off guard with a surprisingly big move?

The Global Dairy Trade auction is the one that taught me this. I was scalping NZDUSD late in the US afternoon, completely relaxed because nothing red was on the calendar, and the pair dropped around 25 pips in a couple of minutes after a weak auction result. I had never even looked at what time the auction published.

Since then my calendar filter is set to show every item for the currencies I trade, regardless of rating, for the next four hours. I skim it at the start of each session and mark anything that has moved my pair more than 10 pips in the past, which I check by pulling up the chart for the last few releases of that item. That small list is usually three or four items per currency, and it covers most of the surprises.

The other thing I watch is the central bank's own wording. When they start naming a specific indicator, I bump that release up a tier in my notes for the next few months, whatever the calendar says.