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The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2:00pm Eastern. Thirty minutes later, the Chair holds a press conference. Each can move the market, and often in opposite directions.

The statement is read by algorithms in milliseconds. Specific words, like a change in a single phrase compared with the last statement, can trigger a quick move. The first reaction is mostly mechanical.

The press conference is human. Tone, emphasis, answers to questions, all of it gets interpreted by traders. A comment in the Q&A can reverse the whole move from the statement, or extend it dramatically.

For scalpers the period from 2:00 to 3:00 is made up of at least three phases: the statement spike, the lull before the conference, and the conference itself, with the Q&A as the wildest part.

Many experienced participants treat the statement move as noise and wait for the conference. Others avoid the entire day. A few specialize in the reversal that often follows the initial spike.

The spread behavior differs among phases. Widest at the statement, narrower during the lull, wide again in the conference.

Which phase has produced the best opportunities, if any, and which has been most dangerous?

The conference has been both the best and the worst part of the day for me, depending on how patient I was. For a while I traded the statement itself on EURUSD and lost money more often than not. The first candle was usually ten or fifteen pips in one direction, my fills came well off the price I clicked, and about half the time the move was given back before the Chair even walked up to the podium.

The lull turned out to be the most useful phase, mostly as a place to think. By 2:20 the spread on my account was usually back to something sensible, and I'd mark the high and low of the statement move as the levels to watch once the questions started.

What has worked best is waiting for a clear reaction to a specific answer in the Q&A and joining the second leg, with a small size and a stop beyond the statement extreme. The most dangerous moment was always the first minute of the conference, when he reads the prepared remarks and the market twitches on every sentence.