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The RBA and the pre-dawn London surprise

The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its decisions in the Australian afternoon, which is the small hours or early morning in London and the middle of the night in New York. AUDUSD moves fast at that moment, and the whole region reacts.

The reaction is unusual because it occurs in the thinnest part of the global day. London is waking up, New York is asleep, and Asian participants are the main source of flow. The pair can move 50 pips in a minute, and spreads go to 4 or 5 pips.

Many scalpers in Europe or the Americas find themselves either missing it or being caught in a position as they begin the day. A trade left open overnight can get hit by a decision the trader had no intention of watching.

The follow-through is generally strong, because the move happens in an environment where the opposite side doesn't arrive until London gets going. When London does, it sometimes reverses part of the move.

The meeting calendar is published a year ahead. A single day's check each month ensures no surprise.

After an RBA decision, how does AUDUSD behave once London arrives a few hours later?

I used to get caught by this regularly, because I hold the odd AUDUSD trade from the late New York session into the next day. One RBA surprise moved the pair against me while I was asleep, and the spread at the time was so wide that my stop filled several pips worse than where I had placed it. That was enough for me to put the meeting dates in my calendar.

On what happens after London arrives, my own notes are mixed. On decisions that were a genuine surprise, the move usually held and London added to it. On decisions that matched expectations but came with a strong statement, London often took back a decent part of it during the first hour, as if European desks didn't fully agree with how Asia read it.

These days I simply flatten any Aussie positions the evening before a meeting. I trade the pair again from around 08:30 London, once the spread is normal and I can see whether London is pushing the move or fading it.