Bollinger squeeze: what it measures and what it does not
Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2026 2:07 pm
Bollinger Bands narrow when volatility falls. The "squeeze" describes a period of unusually tight bands. The common belief is that a squeeze precedes a large move.
It does, on average, since volatility clusters and low volatility tends to give way to high volatility. What the squeeze does not reveal is direction.
Traders often guess the direction, enter early and get stopped by a fake move before the true breakout. A more careful approach waits for a candle to close outside the band and enter on confirmation, accepting a worse price in exchange for fewer false starts.
Bandwidth, the distance between the bands relative to the average, can be measured numerically, allowing a rule such as "squeeze when bandwidth is in the lowest 10 percent of the last 100 candles".
Combining the squeeze with a time filter, such as the minutes before a session opens, aligns the setup with a plausible catalyst.
Has the squeeze been tested here with a numeric definition, and what did the numbers show?
It does, on average, since volatility clusters and low volatility tends to give way to high volatility. What the squeeze does not reveal is direction.
Traders often guess the direction, enter early and get stopped by a fake move before the true breakout. A more careful approach waits for a candle to close outside the band and enter on confirmation, accepting a worse price in exchange for fewer false starts.
Bandwidth, the distance between the bands relative to the average, can be measured numerically, allowing a rule such as "squeeze when bandwidth is in the lowest 10 percent of the last 100 candles".
Combining the squeeze with a time filter, such as the minutes before a session opens, aligns the setup with a plausible catalyst.
Has the squeeze been tested here with a numeric definition, and what did the numbers show?